Lost Samba: Why can not Brazil pay Olympic bills?

Although the state of Rio is the economy of Brazil
2016 Rio Olympic Games opening ceremony of the fireworks against the background of the Manga ghetto "China Economic Weekly" reporter Luo Jiali | Shanghai - Rio connection report (published in the "China Economic Weekly" 2016, No. 32) , Brazilian oil company former staff Chen fresh water alone through the Brazilian city center of Rio de Janeiro Asia Square, subconsciously inserted into the pocket. Since the Brazilian oil company involved 2 billion US dollars of corruption cases, his life in Rio fell into the countdown. In fact, or want to "close contact" with the Olympic Games, he has long since left to the "new owner", located in the United States, Texas, a clothing company. The city hall of the ring square and the national library are still the favorite of the culture, but these nights are obviously less carnival. To be near the office of the flow of people gradually scattered, more people still choose to go home directly - which has a rainy day for unemployment, but also worry about law and order, but off. Chen freshwater told the "China Economic Weekly" reporter, this year the local media is full of the president scandal, economic depression, the card card virus reports, "do not pay special attention to the words, we almost forget the Olympic Games this thing." Many people are also I remember the 2009 Rio victory over the success of the Madrid bid, when the Brazilian head of the BRIC crown, by virtue of the super-commodity futures embodiment of the global economy, "model students", the development mode of hedging ability more people Jin Music in 2010, when many countries are caught in the financial crisis, the Brazilian record since 1986, a new high GDP growth to 7.5% of the high growth proved that the seventh largest economy is not the name of the name. However, many people who mocked the poor performance of the Brazilian economy on the eve of the Olympics did not understand that its glory was halted in the second half of 2011, and after a few years it was only a slowdown in the downhill passage. Living in Rio for nearly eight years, witnessed the flames and seawater of Chen freshwater that "now it seems that the prosperity of Brazil in previous years may be just 'cock off.'" His bookshelves so far in 2009 and 2013 Published in the two issue of "Economist", the magazine's cover appeared in Rio's iconic Christian image. The city was sad that, on the cover of the 2009 issue, icons such as rockets were generally fired from Corcovado, with the title "Brazil's takeoff"; and on the cover of the magazine, In the air around the circle turned down, the title is "Brazil decline?", Only a short interval of 4 years. Rio Tinto Olympic Games before the opening of the "Tucao" Olympic Games seems to have opened the veil of Rio, the second largest city of Brazil, of course, is regarded as a sample of the national economy, but this time, Brazil felt thorn in the back, because the local social Platform, the news media almost invariably align the lens with its disgraceful side. Before the opening of the Olympic Games in Rio, the village of simple facilities, as well as through the mosquito spread of the card card virus has become the "Tucao" focus. Compared with the previous Olympic Games, Rio Olympic Village is indeed capitalist "distress". The Australian delegation to stay on the first day to list more than 200 dissatisfaction: the light line exposed, the roof leaks, the ceiling has a large hole, paint the ladder is still left in the room ... ... from the exposure of the photo, There are media ridicule, the Olympic Village, the level of accommodation is not even better than the domestic third-tier city hostels, public restaurants like vegetable greenhouses grow vegetables. And athletes living room is closely related to the bath conditions is to become a groove: the Japanese gymnast to open the water valve bath hot water seconds to cool water; Chinese table tennis players repeatedly fan hanging curtain of the video is brush burst network. According to the reporter to understand, and Rio's other Olympic facilities than because of the future of the commercial operation, the case of the Olympic Village is actually not too bad, more because the duration is too late to finish, after all, representatives Mission two days before just finished cleaning work. "Olympic village where the Baha'i district has a large slum, in order to build the Olympic Center, the government almost all of these land were collected back, trying to completely transform here into a super rich area, the Olympic Games have not yet opened in the pre-sale Olympic Village apartment, in other words, this part of the Olympic assets because it can be realized, builders and the Olympic Organizing Committee is still intentional. "Chen fresh water told the" China Economic Weekly "reporter. It is reported that some apartments sold to 5 million yuan, there are currently one-tenth has been found to meet the disk. And those municipal facilities do not have this good luck. Such as connecting the main venue of the Olympic Park and the main city of Metro Line 4 subway project dragged on, the initial budget of the line is only 5.6 billion Real (about 10.4 billion yuan), and across the board after the total investment 9.7 billion reais (about 18 billion yuan), this Olympic hub much beyond the Rio state government can load capacity. Until the opening of the Olympic Games 4 days before the Rio subway line 4 was running, and before the end of the Paralympic Games are no ordinary residents. And 7 years ago when the right to compete for the new 8 sewage treatment plant commitment also wasted soup. Rio local officials told the "China Economic Weekly" reporter, the Rio state government has assigned a number of garbage disposal boat to the Olympic water project held in the port of Guanabara to deal with floating objects, but from last October in the financial pressure Was forced to stop paying money to the cleaning company, "and now the cleaning company is also chasing after the government ass." Today, only one of the eight sewage treatment plants is under construction and can not be put into operation until the Olympics are closed. Before the Olympic Games into the "public disaster" state, on behalf of the governor: Rio has been bankrupt In 1984 Los Angeles Olympic Games, the majority of the Olympic Games can achieve different levels of profit, such as the 2012 London Olympic Games only one year through its trade and Investment to recover the cost. According to the British government estimates that by 2020 the London Olympic Games will bring the UK 28 billion to 41 billion pounds of economic value. Under normal circumstances, the Olympic Games on the host country's economic growth boost significantly. If the Olympic economy is a math test, placed in front of Brazil is a game: the current unemployment rate of more than 10%, inflation close to 10%, the currency fell 40% of the economic situation, the desperate to drop billions of dollars Perhaps because of the Olympic bonus and bring the dawn of the revival, but if the failure, the outside world that the Olympic Games or will become the country is facing the recession of the last straw. According to the plan, the funding of the preparations for the Olympic Games by the Rio, state and Brazilian federal government financial sharing, the rest from the private, but the current financial situation in the state of Rio has been comparable to the "crater". The Rio state government announced its entry into the "public disaster" state on July 17, the official communique said, "for various reasons, the current core public service sector suffered serious difficulties and may lead to public safety, medical, educational, traffic and environmental management paralysis "The outside world thinks that this is a strong signal from the Rio state government to the federal government. Normally, the" public disaster "state will only be used when the local floods, earthquakes and other major natural disasters are in the top of the disaster Level, the Rio state government declared a state of emergency because the state has been plunged into serious financial difficulties, which is extremely rare in history. Subsequently, the governor of Rio de Janeiro Francisco Dornelles in an interview with the Brazilian "Globe" interview publicly said that the state of Rio has been bankrupt unless the federal government allocated more than 800 million US dollars. It is clear that the acting president Michel Temer realized that he could not refuse and desperate despair. Due to cash shy, the Olympic budget has been compressed from $ 16.3 billion. "China Economic Weekly" reporter learned from a US media reporter in the Rio, Rio's financial crisis is structural, because oil and gas exports have been accounted for one-third of the government's core industry, although the State is the economy of Brazil, but to a great extent to see the face of international oil prices, so this recession is likely to be long. The bigger bad news is that the 2016 deficit in the state of Rio is expected to reach R $ 31 billion (about $ 36.5 billion), and civil servants are postponed for some time, and some public hospital departments are forced to close The airport pulls out the "welcome to hell" banners of the police's motives are also wage arrears. Rio's financial dilemma has greatly dissatisfied with the cost of the Olympics. A year ago the road bike test race had encountered hundreds of demonstrations, had to temporarily diverted; after the torchbearer along the way has been blocked, the torch was even protested by the protest. From the rise of the great powers to the tragic singing is actually bear the heavy burden of the Olympic Games hosted by the Rio is not only one, the 2004 Athens Olympic Games, Greece had to bear high debts for the later debt crisis buried in the mine; 1976 Montreal Olympic Games The $ 1 billion debt owed did not pay off for a full 30 years. But why only Brazil will bet on the whole country for this image? The answer is evident in the report of the international rating agency that the plight of Rio is in fact the whole country into a microcosm of economic quagmire. Not only is Rio's fiscal deficit staggering, the Brazilian government has also submitted a deficit with a budget, resulting in Standard & Poor's Brazilian sovereign credit rating down to "junk", then because public debt accounted for nearly 70% of GDP, more than 60% Of the international cordon and Fitch included in the "junk", and was included in the "junk" watch list, which is almost destructive for overseas investment. Brazil's GDP transcripts in the past few years are really eye-popping. Because the local currency against the dollar depreciated by 40%, so the real GDP calculated in real terms has just been exposed, the first negative growth in 2015 was 3.8% in 1990, a negative growth of 4.35% since the worst economic performance of a year. But if it is priced in dollars, 2011, when the limelight, the Brazilian GDP as high as 2.614 trillion US dollars, absolutely called the rich and powerful, and by the end of 2015, Brazil's GDP has shrunk sharply to 1.774 trillion US dollars, a decline of up to 32.3% The Obviously, when the spring breeze won the Austrian Aura head hit the economic "iceberg". According to the Latin American Economic Commission statistics, Brazil's economic sector in 2015, there are varying degrees of deceleration, including the secondary industry for two consecutive years of shrinking, especially the manufacturing sector is obvious, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) 50%, and a new 80-month low in November 2015, indicating that the local manufacturing recession continues to worsen. "The current supply of many departments of the data are sharp decline, the construction industry is the most serious, because the industry many large companies are involved in the Brazilian oil company corruption case, and accounted for nearly 40% of industrial output Brazilian car industry also encountered The cold, Fiat, Volkswagen, Ford, GM, several large companies are forced to lay off or forced leave. "Shanghai Institute of International Studies, International Research Institute, said Niuhai Bin, deputy researcher. Reporters from the Brazilian Automobile Industry Association released the latest bulletin to see the new car production in 2015 fell by 18%. More than one person who has studied the Brazilian economy told the "China Economic Weekly" reporter, the Brazilian economy suddenly become an important reason for the economic model is extremely dependent on agricultural products, minerals and other commodity exports, industrial economy accounted for less than three One point, which in a large extent the economic growth in the international trade boom. In the context of the current slowdown in the collective world economy, the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat last year's data show that import and export trade volume of only 362.583 billion US dollars, compared with 2011 decreased by 24.82%, one of the important reasons for dragging GDP. "Miracle years" will come? Last year, the GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean fell by 0.4%, while the overall economic downturn in South America was 1.6%. In the case of a sluggish economic downturn in South America, Brazil's rapid decline was dragged down by the sluggish international trade. If the in-depth study of its economic data will find that foreign trade accounts for only 12% to 14% of the Brazilian economy, the contribution of the export sector to economic growth is not large, so the external demand is clearly only part of the reason, Brazil's exports only ranked No. 25 Bit, which accounts for 1.2% of the world's export share, which is essentially an economy driven by domestic demand. However, the "domestic demand" is implicated in the gap between the rich and the poor countries are most ashamed of hidden dangers. "On the one hand, in order to continue to stimulate consumption, on the one hand is to solve the social contradictions of the high crime rate of the poor, the Brazilian government must support poverty alleviation, engage in a series of large-scale welfare policy, resulting in financial burden. The politicians who have been resident in the embassy of the Rio in the "China Economic Weekly" reporter, this is actually a vicious circle of logic cycle, the government can only rely on high growth in exchange for legitimacy and transfer of national attention, but a huge financial burden But greatly hindered economic growth. Data show that the current share of Brazil's public expenditure on GDP rose to 40%, the government spending on pension to 13% of GDP, the residents pay the pension account to 15 years after the fee, you can receive the retirement after the equivalent of retirement Full salary pensions. In 2014, President Roosevelt signed the bill is to provide the next 10 years of annual education spending to 10% of GDP, the proportion even far more than most developed countries standards. In fact, since the sixties and seventies of last century, the interpretation of the world's attention, "economic miracle", the gap between the rich and the poor have never left Samba country. At that time the new ruling military government highly dependent on the support of the rich group, a large number of wealth after the flow of wealth to the rich class, a group of data in 1980 also reflects the country's black and white sides: per capita income higher than South Korea, Singapore and China Hong Kong and China Taiwan, 73% of Brazilian rural households per capita income is only half of the minimum wage or even lower. Zhang Baoyu, a researcher at the Institute of Latin American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, provides a set of data: Brazil's 10% of the richest people are 28 times the income of the 40% of the poorest people, ranking first in the world of income inequality. Brazil in the early 1950s, per capita GDP is equivalent to more than twice as much as China's Taiwan and South Korea, by 2010 but less than China's Taiwan and South Korea's 1/4. Many scholars believe that even if the Brazilian giant is still able to re-rise from this recession, the problem will also be a long-term detoxification of benign growth. And the Brazilian economic ups and downs have been unable to build a stable political structure. Niu Haibin is directed at the inherent vulnerability of the presidential system based on the multi-party coalition. "Unlike the United States, Brazil is able to share political power in times of economic growth, but in the slump, The Brazilian 32 political parties are active in the political arena, and the formation of the 17 - party ruling party has increased the difficulty of building policy consensus in times of economic hardship.

117843000:2017-04-05 17:34:40